2021 Trends Forum | A year marked by the coronavirus

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the conversation among political and business leaders at the Forum organized by EL PAÍS and Kreab.

Leading figures from the worlds of politics and business came together last Thursday at the Trends 2021 Forum to explore the chief political and economic trends that are likely to set the agenda in coming months, at a time that is inevitably marked by the coronavirus pandemic. This was the third outing for the forum, which was held at the Fundación Telefónica and attended by King Felipe VI. The forum is organized by EL PAÍS and the communications consultancy firm KREAB, and sponsored by Telefónica and Abertis. Speakers explored a range of issues, as follows, with the pandemic dominating the conversation:

Charlotte Erkhammar, CEO of Kreab Worldwide

Erkhamar noted that the pandemic had shaken the world, and went on to explore a range of new habits and behaviors to have emerged due to the imposition of sanitary restrictions. "COVID-19 has hit the world hard and has had an enormous impact on people and companies," she said. "The way of doing business is changing, and I think this is an opportunity for companies and political decision-makers to change – and change they must – the way they plan, invest and operate." In the opening speech, Erkhammar underscored the great uncertainty surrounding this crisis, the duration and outcome of which remain a great unknown. "But we cannot lose sight of other important issues that will have an impact in the future," added the CEO, who mentioned Europe's relations with Russia, the US and China, Brexit and doubts about what will happen in Washington after the upcoming elections.

Carmen Reinhart, Chief Economist at the World Bank.

The World Bank economist explained that, although the global economy will most likely rebound relatively quickly from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are unlikely to see “a full recovery of per-capita income for five years”. Reinhart wouldn’t venture so far as to predict exactly how the global economy is likely to perform, recalling that "the level of uncertainty in this current situation is much higher" than during the 2008 crisis. For Reinhart, much will depend on how quickly a vaccine can be developed and delivered worldwide, as well as on the likelihood of further outbreaks and their impact. One thing is almost certain, however, she said: the impact of the pandemic, which has affected every country to some degree, will lead to a rise in global poverty for the first time in 20 years  “of more than 100 million people – and that’s a conservative estimate”. “What makes this crisis even worse is its regressive effect, which means widening inequality both between countries and within countries. It hits the poorest the hardest,” she said. Forgiving sovereign debt might go some way towards mitigating the likely financial crisis, the chief economist said.

Arancha González Laya, Spanish Foreign Minister.

Spain’s Foreign Minister said it was unfortunate that many European countries had resorted to imposing border restrictions on Spain due to the worsening of the health crisis, a move that is hampering the country's recovery. The minister criticized the "arbitrariness" in border management and, in particular, border closures between EU countries. “This is akin to shooting flies with cannons. What’s needed are proportionate responses,” she said, in conversation with the editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS, Javier Moreno. The minister said she expected Brussels to soon recommend alternative ways of looking at the data that’s used as a basis to limit movement in the EU, and factor in other variables besides the number of people infected with coronavirus. Regarding migration, González Laya called for solidarity and a shared responsibility for migrants who arrive in EU states bordering non-EU states (Spain among them), while at the same time reminding the audience that Europe needs immigrants. Finally, referring to the situation in Venezuela, she called for a possible European election observation mission to ensure that the next legislative elections there will be democratic.

José María Álvarez-Pallete, CEO of Telefónica.

The Telefónica CEO highlighted the importance of his company’s commitment to public service during the pandemic, before focusing on the need to modernize the regulatory and competition frameworks governing certain activities so as to better adapt them to the new digital reality, both in Spain and in Europe. "The new economy demands new rules across the board," he said. “It is not about regulating more but about deregulating more”, he stressed, adding that “regulated companies cannot continue playing in the same field with others that are not. It's just not fair. And it’s not viable. Otherwise, technologies such as 5G, key to leading the digital world, will be lost even before they are developed ”. By way of example, he pointed out that companies like Telefónica must compete “not just with OTTs, but also with hundreds of small telecommunications operators that are effectively working outside competitive dynamics, protected by an outdated regulation. So companies can't compete under those circumstances,” he said. Europe, he concluded, needs to regain digital sovereignty and become a "key player" in this new world, and not not merely be "the playing field" for others. 

Josu Jon Imaz, CEO of Repsol.

Imaz was at pains to stress that teleworking cannot be the future: "It kills innovation, teamwork and the sharing of experiences," he warned, though he acknowledged that in recent months "it had been great for getting us out of a brutal crisis ”. But he warned against the temptation for building the future based on the projection of short-term trends. He then expressed his concern that "the biggest loser of this crisis is going to be the young generation, people from the generation that was born between the years 1986 and 1995", who had already been hit hard early in their careers due to the 2008 crisis. For the sake of this generation, he said, “we all have a responsibility to modernize Spain", and make “a clear commitment to technology and industry, to the science and industrial sectors that generate good jobs and provide innovation, to educational policies aimed at competitiveness, entrepreneurship and professional training.” He also advocated “a clear commitment to Europe.”

José Aljaro, CEO of Abertis.

The Albertis CEO agreed with Imaz that 100 percent teleworking was not positive: “We are people and we need to interact,” he said, advocating a mixed system. He went on to say that Europe in general and Spain in particular “must reduce our dependence on China. We have to offer greater incentives to production and technology." We need to accept, he said, that the pandemic is now a fact of life. “We need to stop complaining and take action,” he said, "and do things that we were never able or ever wanted to do before." Given the shortage of funds in the public sector, Aljaro called for a "concession process" for the highway network ("80% are free, and they need to be maintained," he said), which could contribute up to 100,000 million to the public treasury via contracts lasting from 25 or 30 years. What’s more, he added, this would be in keeping with the user-pays principle

Antonio Llardén, Executive Chairman of Enagás.

The Chair of the energy company struck a more optimistic note, saying that, though there were some exceptions, "the country has functioned very well" in a very difficult situation such as lockdown. He also expressed some reluctance about teleworking, which remains unsuitable for 50% of his company’s workforce. Addressing the Government and the rest of the political parties directly, he insisted that “it is absolutely essential for the country to agree on a budget” and an agreed plan to make the best use of the funds that come from Europe. Looking ahead, he anticipated that the pandemic could lead to greater business concentration. He also expressed his concern for young people who "have just now taken their first professional steps in their careers, when the first 5 or 10 years are critical." "There is a real danger that a whole generation gets left behind" he warned.

Nadia Calviño, Minister of Economy.

"If making economic forecasts is always complicated, in this context it’s a high-risk exercise," said the Minister of Economy, who explained that "the next few months are key to taking the right path." That path, she stressed, "is a project for the whole country, one in which we all have to be united." She said that "there is a huge consensus shared by society and economic players on what the current state of our country, its assets, the main challenges ahead and the reforms that are needed” and she and called for that social consensus “to be embraced on both sides of the aisle in parliament, and that it be reflected in political action by the Government and all public administrations.”  With regard to recovery, the minister said that it was already underway and that “growth in the third quarter will exceed 10%.” However, she considered it essential to shore up that growth and “continue keeping in check the inevitable outbreaks”.

Source: EL PAÍS